What is value betting?

NOV 29, 2024 | BetHawk

Imagine you could bet on a coin flip

It can land on heads or tails, and the chance of either outcome is 50%.

What should the odds be?

Evens. This is because the chance of either outcome is the same, so the amount of money you win should be the same no matter which you bet on. These odds would be considered fair and accurate, and we can prove this by seeing what your results would be long-term: As you can see, as you increase the number of bets, you get closer and closer to breaking even. This is what your results look like long-term when you’re betting at odds which are fair and accurate.

So how come 90% of bettors lose money? (ref)

Because the odds bookmakers offer are not fair or accurate. If you aren’t losing money, then they aren’t making money, so they will always set their odds to be lower than what they consider to be fair. Let’s see what your results would be long-term if you were betting with a bookmaker offering 10/11 instead of evens: As you can see, even though the difference in odds is small, it adds up over time and this is what leads to most bettors losing money.

At BetHawk, we use the bookmakers strategies against them.

The bookmakers often get it wrong, and we specialise in catching them out when they do, making you profit in the process. Here’s how you can make a profit from catching the bookmakers out If the bookmakers were offering higher odds of 11/10, instead of evens, this is what your results would be long-term: Again, the difference in odds is small, but when it’s in your favour it adds up over time making you profit.